The cost of jet fuel is climbing again, and it's already reshaping airline schedules. American Airlines, United Airlines, and Southwest Airlines have all signaled they're pulling back on some planned flights, a move that could ripple through your travel plans just as the holiday season approaches.
According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), the global average jet fuel price jumped 6.1% in a single week, hitting $181.46 (€153) per barrel. That spike is not just a US problem. European carriers are watching the same numbers with concern, as fuel remains one of the biggest line items in any airline's budget.
At Morgan Stanley's annual Laguna Conference, executives from the three major US carriers laid out their strategies. American Airlines' CFO, Devon May, said fuel prices for the fourth quarter are running about $1 per gallon above what the airline had forecast back in July. That difference alone could add around $1 billion (€843 million) to American's fuel bill. May noted that the recent run-up has been sharp, and the airline is planning further capacity adjustments toward the end of the year. Still, demand remains strong, with third-quarter revenue expected to jump 16% to 19% compared with the same period last year.
United Airlines is also trimming its schedule. CFO Michael Leskinen said some flights originally planned for December simply won't operate. "As you look into the fourth quarter, there'll be some flights in December that we won't fly that we thought we were going to fly," he said. If fuel stays high, United could make deeper cuts into the first quarter and beyond, potentially into 2027. The airline hasn't specified which routes are affected, but Leskinen explained that routes at the lower end of profitability can quickly become unprofitable when fuel prices spike.
Southwest Airlines has already reduced about half of the modest year-on-year capacity growth it had planned for 2026. CFO Tom Doxey said further reductions would be a "natural response" if fuel prices remain elevated. However, Southwest later clarified that the schedule changes so far have been minimal, and Doxey was illustrating a possible scenario rather than announcing substantial cuts.
What This Means for Your Wallet
These capacity cuts could hit budget-conscious travelers the hardest. Flights at less popular times, like Tuesdays and Saturdays, or those on thinner routes, are often the first to go because their margins are already tight. That includes very early morning and late-night departures, according to aviation experts cited by CNN. With Spirit Airlines having halted operations in May, and other low-cost carriers shifting toward more premium offerings, finding a genuinely cheap flight is getting tougher.
There's a silver lining, though. Airlines report little evidence that higher fuel prices are dampening overall demand. United says its fourth-quarter bookings remain "tremendously strong," with premium travel, corporate demand, and economy bookings all holding up. "Bookings have continued as we expected, so that piece of the equation is resilient, very little evidence of demand destruction," Leskinen said. Strong demand combined with reduced capacity could make it harder to snag a bargain, especially if fuel prices stay high into 2027.
European Airlines Feel the Pinch Too
While the latest announcements come from US carriers, the fuel surge is global. European airlines face the same cost pressures, though some have a buffer through fuel hedging, which locks in prices for a portion of their fuel needs. That can soften the blow of sudden spikes, but it won't shield them from a prolonged period of high prices. The gap between jet fuel and crude oil prices, known as the crack spread, has widened, adding another layer of complexity for airlines worldwide.
European carriers are also dealing with additional costs from fleet renewal, sustainable aviation fuel requirements, and broader decarbonization efforts. Aircraft delivery delays have forced some airlines to keep older, less fuel-efficient planes in service longer than planned. For passengers, higher fuel prices don't automatically mean higher ticket prices. Airfares depend heavily on supply and demand, as airlines balance operating costs against how many seats they offer and what travelers are willing to pay.
If you're planning to fly this winter, it's worth keeping an eye on schedule changes. United's app now hunts for earlier flights to help you adjust if your original flight gets cut. And if you're dreaming of a getaway to somewhere like Santiago, cheap flights might be on the horizon, but only if airlines keep their schedules intact. For now, the industry is watching to see whether this fuel surge is a temporary blip or a longer-term trend that could reshape the skies well into 2027.
