The Middle East conflict has turned jet fuel into aviation's public enemy number one. United Airlines just announced it will trim around 5% of its planned flights in the coming months, a move that CEO Scott Kirby described as necessary insurance against prolonged energy chaos.
The numbers are staggering. If fuel prices hold at current levels, Kirby wrote in an internal memo, the airline faces an additional $11 billion in annual expenses. He's preparing for oil to potentially spike to $175 per barrel and stay elevated through 2027. For context, jet fuel has climbed to levels not seen since 2022, thanks partly to disruptions flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which channels roughly one-third of the world's seaborne oil.
What's Actually Getting Cut
United isn't grounding planes randomly. The carrier is cancelling 3% of capacity during slower travel periods in spring and summer, focusing on late-night red-eyes and traditionally quiet days like Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Saturdays. Another 1% comes from suspended service to Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv and Dubai International, both caught in the crossfire of regional instability. The final 1% traces back to FAA capacity limits at Chicago O'Hare during peak summer season.
The airline plans to restore its full schedule by autumn. That's the official timeline, anyway.
Why Fuel Costs Matter More Than You Think
Labor aside, jet fuel is the single largest expense for any carrier, typically eating up roughly a quarter of operating costs. This puts airlines in an impossible squeeze: keep fares low enough that customers actually want to fly, but high enough to survive. Cutting capacity is the fastest escape route from that trap, which is precisely why American Airlines recently announced similar adjustments. American alone has already spent an additional $400 million on fuel since the conflict began.
Kirby stressed that United isn't facing the kind of existential crisis that triggered emergency groundings or mass layoffs during previous crashes. The airline is still taking delivery of roughly 120 new aircraft this year, including 20 new 787s. Another 130 planes arrive by April 2028. That's confidence mixed with caution.
What Travelers Should Actually Know
Here's where it gets tricky. Short-term, fewer flights could mean higher prices on remaining routes. But reduced competition on quieter travel dates might create unexpected deals. Demand has stayed robust so far, according to Kirby, though he acknowledged that bookings could soften if energy costs continue climbing.
The industry faces a longer problem: even if the regional conflict resolved tomorrow, restarting oil production, repositioning tankers, and reopening liquefied natural gas facilities takes months. Supply chains remain misaligned. Insurers remain nervous. The Strait of Hormuz now operates as a permissioned corridor controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, adding another layer of unpredictability.
Ahmed Abdelghany, a professor at Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, views United's move as smart timing. "The longer it goes on, the more problematic it becomes for the remaining airlines," he told Wired. Capacity cuts now beat the alternative later.
For travelers planning summer trips, the takeaway is simple: book soon if you have flexibility on dates. Avoid Tuesdays through Thursdays in June and July if you're flying United, and don't expect normal prices on peak weekends. Middle East connectivity is particularly fragile right now, so factor extra time into any itineraries that involve regional hubs.
The aviation industry moves slowly, but it moves decisively when survival is on the line. United's cuts signal that carriers expect this fuel crisis to outlast the summer. Plan accordingly.
