Booking.com's top executive is the latest voice to signal that the travel industry's post-pandemic surge is losing steam. Glenn Fogel, CEO of Booking Holdings, told the BBC's Big Boss Interview that demand across Europe and Asia is "softening," thanks to a one-two punch of pricier tickets and wages that aren't keeping up.
The company's fourth-quarter outlook now points to gross bookings growth of just 2% to 4%, down from an earlier forecast of 7%. Room-night growth is expected to land between 1% and 3%. Third-quarter numbers showed single-digit gains in both domestic and international travel, with domestic edging out international. Fogel described the pattern as "a bit of a softening," a phrase that feels almost gentle given the forces at play.
Geopolitics is a big part of the story. The Middle East crisis has pushed oil costs up, and violent protests in cities like Paris have dented traveler confidence. Fogel said the slowdown is "not surprising looking at the state of the world." Still, the numbers aren't all gloomy. Booking's platforms logged 345 million room nights in the third quarter, up 7% year over year, and gross bookings hit $54.5 billion, a 10% jump. Reported revenue dipped 1% to about $8.9 billion, but after adjusting for a Federal Trade Commission move, revenue actually rose 9%.
For travelers, the takeaway is that prices may stay high even as demand cools. Airlines and hotels have been slow to lower fares, and the FTC is now demanding airlines explain how they price tickets, which could bring more transparency down the line. But don't expect a bargain bonanza just yet.
Fogel isn't losing sleep over the short-term wobble. He's playing the long game, focusing on what his company can control: better services and a bigger slice of a market he believes will keep growing faster than GDP for the next two decades. "We cannot control things like geopolitical issues," he said. "What I can do is continue to improve our services."
His advice to governments? Stop handing out bailouts and start building. Fogel joined a chorus of voices at the Global Tourism Forum in Brussels calling for more investment in airport capacity and infrastructure. More supply, he argues, would lower prices for everyone. He also took aim at the patchwork of tourist taxes popping up worldwide, calling the experience inconsistent and confusing. Whether those taxes actually scare off visitors remains unclear, he admitted.
For now, the industry is watching closely. Europe's autumn bookings are holding firm despite the jitters, and travel defied wars and costs to smash records in 2026. But if the softening spreads, travelers might finally see some relief at the checkout screen.
